博士 / 國立中興大學 / 農業經濟學系 / 90 / The structural changes in the consuming demand of fishery products may have the possibility to affect the revenue of the fishermen. This study would like to emphasize the actual estimate and model of the structural relationship between the quantity and price of the consumer demand occurred in the recent year, so as to ensure the policy to be effected by the government according to the structural changes of the consumer demand. The generalized models of both Ordinary Demand System and Inverse Demand System were been set up by the uses of the quarterly information of major fishery products from the first quarter of 1979 throughout the fourth quarter of 1999. Then, these two generalized models of demand systems were been testified to determine which one of them is suitable for the consumer demand of fishery products in Taiwan through the modified nonnest tests of Davidson-Mackinnon , Durbin-Wu-Hausman tests, and the forecasting performance by RMSE Ratio and Theil’s U-Statistics as well. Added with the restrictions imposed by symmetry and homogeneity , and then followed with the method of SUR for the estimated flexibilities, the selected demand system incorporate dynamic specifications as the basis of analysis, and to complete some constructive recommendation, which will improve and promote the revenue of the fishermen. And the following conclusions were resulted through the actual tests.
1. It is concluded that “The generalized inverse demand system with prices dependent on quantities” seemed to be suitable for the demand system of fishery products in Taiwan, throughout the tests by the Davidson -Mackinnon modified nonnested tests, Durbin-Wu-Hausman tests, and the forecasting performance by RMSE Ratio and Theil’s U-Statistics as well. Also, the synethic model (generalized model) seemed to be in the most suitable use for Taiwan.
2. The adjusting coefficient “λ”of dynamic behavior is highly significant level within the model. This appeared that the consuming expenditure to the fishery products would not be rapidly adjusted according to the current but to the previous changes in both the scale and the quantities. This has made that the short-term consuming expenditure couldn’t be re-adjusted to its optimum level in time. Therefore, the marketing programs should be made incorporation with some festival activities in the traditional holidays, e.g., Ching-Ming Festival (清明節), Dragon Boat Racing Festival (端午節), Ghost Festival (中元節), and Chinese New Year Holiday, etc. under such a rigid consuming tendency.
3. The own-price flexibilities of all the fishery products are less then one (1). However, the effects of the increase or decrease in quantity to the fishermen’s revenue is still depending on the relation between the quantity and price of the products themselves. The uncompensated own-price flexibilities of tilapia, milkfish, shrimps, pornfret, sea bream, and cod are statistically significant at the 15% level. The pornfret had the highest flexibility at —0.344, whilst the cod had the lowest flexibility at —0.024 among them. The own-price inflexibility of the fishery products themselves indicated that the government had well safeguarded the fishermen’s profit and well kept the prices stable through the efficient policies effected in the past time. The policy of stable pricing must be continued in order to well protect the fishermen’s revenue under the coming policy of totally opening the imports of fishery products from the worldwide countries.
4. The nature of the own-price inflexibility of the fishery products themselves as concluded throughout this study indicated that both the quantity of consumer demand and the revenue of the fishermen are proceeding in parallel. The fishermen’s revenue can be increased only by the increase of the quantity demanded. The apparent increase in both the quantity demanded and the price of the offshore & coastal and far sea fishery, like sea bream, pornfret, mackerel and marlin, had been proved good to the revenue of the fishermen. For the milkfish、shellfishes of the aquaculture, and the tuna of the far sea, it appeared that the quantity demanded was going up, whilst the prices were getting down. When the own-price inflexilibities or even non-flexilibities, the increase in the quantity demanded will be good to the revenue of fishermen, who are in the businesses of the milkfish、shellfishes of the aquaculture, and the tuna of the far sea. It appeared that the price was going up when the quantity demanded was decreased with regards to the shrimps of aquaculture. When the shrimps’ own-price flexibility is inflexible, the decrease in the quantity demanded made the fishermen’s revenue less. With regard to the tilapia of aquaculture and the hairtail、squids of the offshore and coastal, it appeared that both the quantity demanded and price were decreased. This had made the inability of export competition for the fishermen of tilapia of the aquaculture, and made the revenue of the fishermen of hairtail and squids even worse.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:TW/090NCHU0412006 |
| Date | January 2002 |
| Creators | Lee, Chiry-Ming, 李家銘 |
| Contributors | Pr. Hwuang, Trong-Chyre, 黃琮琪 |
| Source Sets | National Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations in Taiwan |
| Language | zh-TW |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | 學位論文 ; thesis |
| Format | 0 |
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