碩士 / 國立交通大學 / 運輸科技與管理學系 / 90 / Using the statistics compiled by Directorate General of Customs, Ministry of Finance, container water transport forecasting models were built, and the forecasting results could be applicable for practical purposes. Formerly, the statistics compiled by harbour bureaus, Ministry of Transportation and Communications, were often adopted in many researches. According to The Standard Classification of Commodities of the Republic of China, there are five sorts of codes to classify the monthly data of the import and export value and quantity. The MOF data seems to be more reliable and detailed than that of the MOTC. The thesis utilized the MOF data from 1989.01 to 2001.03 in two-digit code and 97 chapters of the commodities. The import(export) values were transferred to the import(export) quantities by using various transformation models, such as regression model, exponential model, and 42 kinds of time series models. The best goodness-of-fit models are selected. The results revealed that the import(export) value and the import(export) quantity were positively correlated, and can be proxy variable for each other. In the container traffic or the commodity transport aspect, the most part forecasted by transformation models are more accurate than those from the direct forecasts. The long-term forecasting models were built in the same way, and compared with forecasting results of several large-scale plans. The results of this thesis would be applicable for harbour constructions and operations.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:TW/090NCTU0423001 |
| Date | January 2002 |
| Creators | Shih, Min-Yu, 石珉宇 |
| Contributors | Kao, Kai, 高凱 |
| Source Sets | National Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations in Taiwan |
| Language | zh-TW |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | 學位論文 ; thesis |
| Format | 214 |
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