碩士 / 國立臺灣大學 / 生物環境系統工程學系暨研究所 / 91 / A stream temperature model and a fish population model are built in this thesis to assess the impacts of climate change on Formosan Landlocked Salmon. Stream temperature is one of the most important ecological indexes to examine if one habitat is suitable for fish, especially for cool-water species, such as Formosan Landlocked Salmon. Fish population is closely related to environmental conditions.
To project future climatic conditions, outputs from CGCM2, HADCM3, CCCM and GISS are used to setup climatic scenarios. Applying those projected future weather to stream temperature model, annual average stream temperatures are predicted to rise by 0.5℃(HADCM3) to 2.9℃(CGCM2L). By applying stream temperature criteria for fish survival(18℃) and good growth(17℃), stream length with suitable habitat is estimated. The results of simulations show that available stream habitats would be lost 333m(HADCM3) to 1633m(CGCM2L) with the criterion of 17℃, and 166m(HADCM3S) to 1833m(CGCM2L) with the criterion of 18℃, respectively. The most increase of stream temperature and the most loss of available habitat will be in summer in the future climatic conditions.
Moreover, a new approach is proposed to identify the impact functions that describe the effects of temperature and flood on Formosan Landlocked Salmon’s population. Data classification is applied to divide environmental conditions into different categories according to the magnitude of flood and stream temperature, and then genetic programming is utilized to develop functions for each category, respectively. The results indicate that the proposed approach can successfully develop functions to provide reasonable predictions of Formosan Landlocked Salmon’s population based on given temperature and possible flood. For projected climate change, the simulations show the amount of fish of 25th percentile would decrease 29.9% ~ 92%. From the results of both models, climate change would endanger Formosan Landlocked Salmon.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:TW/091NTU00404016 |
| Date | January 2003 |
| Creators | Tsung-Yu Lee, 李宗祐 |
| Contributors | Ching-Pin Tung, 童慶斌 |
| Source Sets | National Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations in Taiwan |
| Language | zh-TW |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | 學位論文 ; thesis |
| Format | 113 |
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