碩士 / 中原大學 / 國際貿易研究所 / 93 / This paper is based on the certificating model by Bo and Sterken (2002). Apart from considering the debt of the industry and interest rate, we included factors like revenue, cost and exchange rate. We analyze how all these factors affect the investment for the shipping industry. Besides using the fixed effects model to analyze, for uncertain measurements, we use two forecasting models, one is ARMA model and the other is Moving Average model.
As a result, the certificating model indicates that the market interest rate could not fully represent the cost of debt for the firm. We should adopt the firm rate to evaluate the effect of investment. Debt has negative effects on investments, meaning that if the firm has more debts, it will reduce their ability to invest. However, the combined the effect on interest rate movements and debt effect is negative and significant. It means the firm will not increase their investment as result of inflation that makes the more degree of real debt decreasing than the degree of interest disbursement increasing.
Also, where revenue is concerned, when the Baltic Dry Index is higher, it will have a positive and significant effect on firm investment, while cost fluctuations in oil prices will have a significant impact on the firm investment levels. For exchange rate movements, due to the cost of transportation and associated oild prices, typically using the US dollars for computations will help to reduce the risks involved. As a result, it will have less impact on firm investment.
Finally, the outcome displayed from taking the Moving Average model is better than the ARMA model. It indicates that firm cares about the effects of predictable volatilities of interest rate or exchange rate on investment, not cares about the effects of unpredictable volatilities of interest rate or exchange rate on investment.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:TW/093CYCU5323015 |
| Date | January 2005 |
| Creators | Chun-De Chen, 陳俊德 |
| Contributors | Po-Chin Wu, 吳博欽 |
| Source Sets | National Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations in Taiwan |
| Language | zh-TW |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | 學位論文 ; thesis |
| Format | 56 |
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