碩士 / 國立中興大學 / 獸醫病理學研究所 / 93 / Abstract
Bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) is one of the major concerns of the international trade. To solve the dispute of the international trade, risk analysis provides the important scientific database for setting the protective levels of measurement and can homogenize the dispute. The aim of the risk assessment was to evaluate the probability of risk of developing BSE in Taiwan, through the importation of live cattle/cows and meat and bone-meal (MBM) from BSE prevalent areas between 1980 and 2004. The simulations were performed using two softwares, Excel 2002 (Microsoft Corporation) and @Risk (Palisade Corporation) with Latin hypercube sampling technique for 10,000 times to estimate 90% confidence interval of the risk. Since 1980, there had been 27,820 live cattle/cows imported from Canada, Japan and United States of America and 1,196,846 metric tons of MBM from Great Britain, the Netherlands, Italy, Canada, Denmark, Japan, Austria and United States of America. The results show
that the probable risk of contamination of ruminant feed with developing >1 case of BSE via the importation of live cattle/cows was 34.037×10-6. The probable risk of contamination of ruminant feed via the importation of MBM was 26.5037 x 10-6,The average of total probable risk was 60.5407×10-6, the minimum probable risk was 1.225×10-7 and the maximun probable risk was 1.0508×10-3. The importation of MBM from Britain between 1989 and 1990 was the major source of the imported risk. In accordance with the result and the risk management, the introduction of BSE agent into ruminant feed chain and developing BSE in Taiwan is relative minimum. However, enforcement the risk management and the prevention of cross contamination in rendering procedures are the major subjects to prevent the occurrence of BSE in Taiwan.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:TW/093NCHU0628007 |
| Date | January 2005 |
| Creators | Ming-Chia Sung, 宋明家 |
| Contributors | Cheng-I Liu, Wei-Cheng Lee, Chao-chin Chang, 劉正義, 李維誠, 張照勤 |
| Source Sets | National Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations in Taiwan |
| Language | zh-TW |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | 學位論文 ; thesis |
| Format | 85 |
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