碩士 / 中原大學 / 企業管理研究所 / 94 / Abstract
Based on the aggressive involvement by ASEAN and countries like Japan, China and Korea, the consensus and the development of the integration of Asian regional economy have grown mature. Recently, Asian Development Bank promotes the combination of Currency Basket and the integration weights of Asian Currency Unit (ACU) in order to accelerate the accomplishment of ACU and makes Asia become one of the biggest economy zones.
This study focused on 9 ASEAN nations which including Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippine, Laos, Viet Nam, Cambodia, Myanmar, Japan, PRC and Korea as sample for the last 13 years. The central rate of ACU was simulated via Exports, GDP per capita and International Reserves for selected nations. We applied Johansen Co-integration Test, VAR model, Stability test and VECM model to analyze the relationship between ACU and other factors such as Industry Production Index, Short-term Interest, Foreign Direct Investment, Manufacturing Imported Ratio and Ownership Specific Advantage and examined dynamic reactions.
This research found that ACU has the most powerful impact on Industry Production Index. The Interest comes second and Manufacturing Imported Ratio to be next. Foreign Direct Investment and Ownership Specific Advantage have the worst influence power. On the other hand, Industry Production Index has great influence to ACU. Other variables have only few effects. There existed bilateral relationship between Foreign Direct Investment and Short-term Interest of PRC, as well as Manufacturing Imported Ratio and Ownership Specific Advantage of Cambodia. In addition, this study indicated that long-term co-integration relationship between ACU and related Foreign Direct Investment of Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Laos, Myanmar and Cambodia in response of the long-term changes.
The empirical results show that a better convergence effect of long term economy variables, revealing that the interference between ACU and regional economic factors is lessen gradually. Moreover, we found that Indonesia, Viet Nam, Japan and PRC have significant impact on ACU which in turn affect Industry Production Index most. The next one is Manufacture Imported Ratio, followed by Foreign Direct Investment and Ownership Specific Advantage. The minor one is Short-term Interest Rate.
In regard to the experiment result on prediction of variance decomposition, we found that Short-term Interest and Foreign Direct Investment can be the explanatory variables for influencing ACU. Interestingly, Indonesia has greatest influence to ACU. In the mean time, we found that ACU has the most powerful influence on Korea and Japan comes next. The empirical results of VECM model showed that ACU is influenced by itself of lag 1, Foreign Direct Investment and Short-term Interest of Malaysia of lag 1 and Industry Production Index and Ownership Specific Advantage of Myanmar of lag 1 and 2.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:TW/094CYCU5121035 |
| Date | January 2006 |
| Creators | Yu-Ying Hsu, 徐玉瑛 |
| Contributors | Jo-Hui Chen, 陳若暉 |
| Source Sets | National Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations in Taiwan |
| Language | zh-TW |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | 學位論文 ; thesis |
| Format | 153 |
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