碩士 / 國立交通大學 / 交通運輸研究所 / 94 / Dry cargo shipping is a fully open competitive market with characteristics of high capital investment and high risk of operation, of which shipping freight is determined by both supply and demand. Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is a freight index of the market. The importance of BDI is that the change of shipping freight can be observed from the variation pattern of that index.
This study aims to explore factors influencing the change of “Baltic Dry Index”, as well as to find out a suitable method and model to forecast the change of this index. Since BDI is a weighted average of three indexes, namely Baltic Capesize Index, Baltic Panamax Index and Baltic Handymax Index, both direct and indirect modeling approach are adopted by using Regression, ARIMA and Intervention model of time series analysis techniques. The forecasting models of BDI, BCI, BPI and BHMI are respectively developed and compared in this study. The results of comparing different methods of BDI forecasting models reveal that direct forecasting approach is better than indirect approach, and that intervention model is better than ARIMA. This study also find out that among many possible influential factors, ship’s deadweight supply, grain and steel demand of Asia are the most significant factors.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:TW/094NCTU5118009 |
| Date | January 2006 |
| Creators | Jung-Chen Liang, 梁容禎 |
| Contributors | Cherng-Chwan Hwang, 黃承傳 |
| Source Sets | National Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations in Taiwan |
| Language | zh-TW |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | 學位論文 ; thesis |
| Format | 106 |
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