博士 / 國立臺灣海洋大學 / 河海工程學系 / 94 / In this study we discuss the balance of demand and supply of the port system from the view point of the port planning. Firstly, we focus on comparing the methods for forecasting container throughput, taking the of example for container ports in Taiwan. These methods are Time Series Hierarchy Regression (THSR) model, Modify Grey Verhulst (MGV) model, Regression Analysis (R.A.), Time Series Analysis (TS) and GM(1,1) forecast model. The results show that the THSR model is suitable for forecast container throughput in Taiwan, but not for the import condition throughput. The MGV model is suitable for forecast import container throughput in Taiwan, especially, when the throughput increases according to the S-cure. Inaddition, this study discusses the ship arrival and service distribution. The periodical container liner operates according to a regular schedule, but its distribution may be influenced by factors such as advanced or delayed sailing dates and distinct observation systems. Furthermore, a shipping company may operate more than one shipping line; when all the shipping lines are merged, this study demonstrates that the ship arrival distribution will be shifted from Singular shipping line → Singular berth → Singular container terminal → Entire port accordingly, from approximately k=6 of the Erlang distribution to k=1 of the random arrival distribution; and proves that the ship arrival distribution is affected by distinct observation systems.
Finally, this study classified both ships and berths using actual data and then compared the resultant differences of the scenarios with and without classification with the simulation. The comparison shows that the outcomes with and without the classification of ships and berths are located opposite to the outcomes obtained from the simulation, which was deliberately constructed and rendered sufficiently accurate results. The optimal scale of cranes of container berths is located between the outcomes of the two proposed scenarios. There is no longer a need to establish a complex and tedious simulation model. The method proposed in this study provides a convenient way to determine the optimum number of berths and cranes for container berths.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:TW/094NTOU5192071 |
| Date | January 2006 |
| Creators | Sheng-Chieh Wu, 吳勝傑 |
| Contributors | Wen-Chih Huang, Tu-Cheng Kuo, 黃文吉, 郭塗城 |
| Source Sets | National Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations in Taiwan |
| Language | zh-TW |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | 學位論文 ; thesis |
| Format | 153 |
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