碩士 / 國立交通大學 / 管理學院碩士在職專班運輸物流組 / 95 / The purpose of this study is to find out major factors that influence the delivered numbers of new-built ship in marine market. Correlation analysis and regression analysis methods are used to develop the causal relation type of models for bulkcarrier, container and tanker respectively, from which influential factors and their effects on new-built ships can be explored. ARIMA of Time series analysis are then used to forecast each type of the new-built ship from 2007 to 2010.
The results of this study indicate that short term influential factors of bulkcarrier, container and tanker are new-built price, secondhand price, total fleets, freight, materiel price and bunker price.As far as long term effect is concerned, the influential factors are global trade and world GDP. According to forecasting results of the ARIMA model, from 2007 to 2010, new-built bulkcarriers tends to decrease but ease off, new-built containers tends to stably increase, new-built tankers tends to increase in general, but with fairly high degree of variations.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:TW/095NCTU5725011 |
| Date | January 2007 |
| Creators | Yun - Chao Wang, 王雲召 |
| Contributors | Cherng - Chwan Hwang, 黃承傳 |
| Source Sets | National Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations in Taiwan |
| Language | zh-TW |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | 學位論文 ; thesis |
| Format | 95 |
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