碩士 / 國立高雄海洋科技大學 / 航運管理研究所 / 96 / The global economic and trade is changing rapidly. From 2003 year，It is violent to change of the freight rates about the dry-bulk shipping within the shipping related industries.Therefore, shipping industry faces relatively high risks. It is important to grasp effectively the the factors attributable to the volatility of freight rates. It will reduce shipping market risk and enhance the profitability of the market participants, which attract to study the fluctuate factors about the freight rate of dry-bulk shipping.The freight rate of dry-bulk shipping is determined by vessel supply and vessel demand. The raw materials transport by the dry-bulk vessel mainly. So, this study explores the relationships between the freight rate of dry-bulk shipping（include BCI,BPI and BSI） and the price of raw materials（include scrap, coal, steel, soybean and corn）
The relationships between the eight variables by using unit root test, Johansen cointegration test, vector autoregressive model or vector error correction model, granger causality test, impulse reaction function, and forecasting error variation decomposition.The data employed in this research covers from 2002 and 2007 on the weekly basis. The result of this study shows that the freight rate of Cape size vessel rise will drive the freight rate of Panamax size vessel rise. The freight rate of Panamax size vessel rise will drive the freight rate of Supramax size vessel rise. This is a rate of exchange to substitute the effect.The price of scrap and steel rise will drive the freight rate of dry-bulk shipping. That is accord with the demand of economic development derive the demand of transportation. In addition,the relationship between the price of grain and the freight rate of dry-bulk shipping. The results of this paper can provide the market participants decision-making.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:TW/095NKIM8301012 |
| Date | January 2008 |
| Creators | CHENG, YEN- CHING, 鄭晏晴 |
| Contributors | SHANG, KUO-CHUNG, CHEN, YUNG-SHUN, 桑國忠, 陳永順 |
| Source Sets | National Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations in Taiwan |
| Language | zh-TW |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | 學位論文 ; thesis |
| Format | 101 |
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