博士 / 國立臺灣海洋大學 / 河海工程學系 / 95 / Due to the economical configuration and containership enlargement, the hub-and-spoke network system is widely adapted by the carriers. And there exists a production and attraction relationship between the feeder port and hub port. In order to pursue the maximum benefit and utilization, the carriers will likely choose their favored hub ports as transshipment bases. Therefore, in this competitive market of port container transshipment, estimating the volume that each port can handle is a very interesting topic worth exploring.
From the review of literature, there is very little research focused on the forecasting of container transshipment. Even where there is research, it is usually focused on a single port and based on its historical data only. This totally neglects the closed relationship between carriers and transshipment containers, and the production and attraction relationship between the feeder port and the hub port. To describe the carriers’ transshipment behavior reasonably, the Port Container Transshipment Competition Model (PTC Model) is established in this dissertation to estimate the container transshipment in each port.
The PTC Model is a mathematical model which combines the quantified SWOT (strength, weakness, opportunity and threat) method and integer programming method. Its objective is to find the carriers’ maximum utility, including “maritime transport cost”, “transshipment port cost” and “SWOT utility of hub port”. And in this thesis, the study scope will be targeted on the cross-strait’s container-ports while year 2005 data was used to conduct the model verification. On the market share of port container transshipment volume, the verification result shows on average, there is only a 0.97% discrepancy between the forecast and actual data. It shows that the PTC model has a good ability of explaining the competition among port container transshipment.
The PTC model can not only describe the carrier’s behavior in container transshipment reasonably, but can also estimate multiple ports’ transshipment volume. And this is the major contribution of this dissertation. Moreover, when combined with the “Elasticity Analysis” and “Scenarios Analysis” methods and tuning the parameters, the PTC model can also observe the variation of each port’s container transshipment volume. It will be a great reference for assisting a port in studying its development strategy.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:TW/095NTOU5192033 |
| Date | January 2007 |
| Creators | Hsu-Hsi Chang, 張徐錫 |
| Contributors | Wen-Chih Huang, 黃文吉 |
| Source Sets | National Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations in Taiwan |
| Language | zh-TW |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | 學位論文 ; thesis |
| Format | 209 |
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