碩士 / 國立臺灣海洋大學 / 航運管理學系 / 95 / According to the principles of supply and demand in economics, the supply of tonnages and demand of cargoes are the key factors that influence shipping markets and freight rates directly. Based on the latest statistics provided by the UNCTAD in 2006, the deadweight tonnages of the top-10 shipping countries (or districts) reached 645,427 thousands which account for 71.18 percent globally. In other words, the amount of how the tonnage of the top-10 shipping countries varies has direct impacts on supply and demand in shipping markets. In this article, we mainly use the latest ten-year (1997-2006) statistics offered by the UNCTAD to thoroughly analyze tonnage structures of the top-10 shipping countries. In addition, we forecast tonnage structures development trends of top-10 shipping countries by Grey GM(1,1) Model, GM(1,1) Rolling Model of Grey theory and Exponential Smoothing. They are showed as follows:
1. In terms of numbers of vessel and deadweight tonnage, seven countries, except Hong Kong, South Korea and Singapore, are consistent with the global trend in the reduction of national flag vessels and the increase in foreign flag vessels. In terms of flagged-out, Japan is the worst among top-10 countries, and the others successively are Germany, Taiwan, America, Greece, Norway, Hong Kong, South Korea, China and Singapore. In terms of national vessel type ratios, the major vessel type ratio of Germany is container vessel; the other countries are the same as the global trend mainly in tankers or bulk carriers.
2. As far as tonnage predict is concerned, top-10 shipping countries have the growth trends in deadweight tonnage. Germany with the highest growth rate is 75.86 percent, and the others are successively Hong Kong, China, Japan, South Korea, Norway, Taiwan, Greece, America and Singapore. The result reveals that the effects of top-10 shipping countries’ tonnage development to the world’s tonnage are indeed increasing.
The outcomes of this research will assist shipping companies in shipping management decision-making and government agencies in formulating supportive shipping policy.
Key words: Flagged-out, FOC, Shipping Policy, Grey Theory
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:TW/095NTOU5301017 |
| Date | January 2007 |
| Creators | Chia-Yang Hsu, 徐嘉陽 |
| Contributors | Cheng-Chi Chung, 鍾政棋 |
| Source Sets | National Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations in Taiwan |
| Language | zh-TW |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | 學位論文 ; thesis |
| Format | 80 |
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