碩士 / 國立臺灣海洋大學 / 航運管理學系 / 95 / In past few years, operation of bulk shipping faced the severest challenge among all shipping related industries. In the dry bulk market, Baltic Capesize not only concentrated the limited resource of goods but also accompanied with the most violent variation of freight rate and charter hire. Consequently, how the shipping companies manage the variation of freight rate and charter hire of Capesize is the key of successful management. This research mainly utilizes Grey Model (1,1) of Grey theory, Seasonality Grey Models to construct the forecast model of Baltic Capesize Index, which is applying the statistic data of the Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics and the Baltic Exchange to the Capesize market and BCI development trend. The outcome of research as follows:
1. In terms of Capesize market, it points out that Capesize vessels mainly carry coal and iron, and developed countries of industry are covered with Capesize vessels’ trading pattern. Among these countries, China is one of the important countries which affect the global trading pattern. Consequently, the Far East is the core area of operation in Capesize market.
2. Constructing the forecast model of BCI, and derive the fluctuant trend of freight rate and charter hire in different periods. As far as outcome is concerned, BCI develop buoyantly in coming six months (from April to September, 2007).
3. Regarding the chartering decisions making, the forecast outcomes measure the scope of interval estimation and consider different risk preferences of shipowners and charterers, and then provide different adjusted value. Finally, according to the forecast outcome, the chartering decision-making policies are proposed in this research.
This research expects the findings to provide more detailed and accurate information of better operational business strategies for shipowners and charterers.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:TW/095NTOU5301021 |
| Date | January 2007 |
| Creators | Yu-Sheng Lin, 林宥勝 |
| Contributors | Cheng-Chi Chung, 鍾政棋 |
| Source Sets | National Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations in Taiwan |
| Language | zh-TW |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | 學位論文 ; thesis |
| Format | 81 |
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