碩士 / 國立高雄第一科技大學 / 運籌管理所 / 96 / Due to growth of the economy, the number of private vehicles is increasing and so is the gasoline demand. In return, this will also affect the number of public transport passengers. However, when analyzing transport demand, most of the previous researches estimate private and public transport individually. Nevertheless, the decision of choosing private or public transport is at the same time. As a result, the gasoline consumption and the number of public transport passengers exists substitution relationships; consequently the residual of the two transport equations are correlative. Therefore, different from the literature, this research estimating private and public transport by Seemingly Unrelated Regression. Also, our model will make further modification and discussion. Motorcycles are very popular vehicles in Taiwan. So we modify our model to close to real situation by including number of motorcycle in our vehicle number. Besides, this study will further discuss the effects of household structure to transport demand.
The empirical results show that estimated parameters for all variables included in our model are significant. Since the signs of estimated parameters for fuel price in both equations are opposite, it implies that the number of public transport passengers and the gasoline consumption are substitutes. Households owning more vehicles have more gasoline consumption and less passengers taking public transport. However, demand of transport is insensitive to the household income. The impacts of household demographic characteristics show that households with 0-6 year children use more gasoline but less public transport. Finally, by the simulation of increasing oil price scenarios, the rise of gasoline price will result in less gasoline consumption but more public transport for households. Households in Taipei have the highest consumption for public transport which may contribute to its most completed public transport infrastructures in Taiwan.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:TW/096NKIT5682050 |
| Date | January 2008 |
| Creators | Kuan-Lin Yen, 閻冠麟 |
| Contributors | Heng-Chi Lee, 李恒綺 |
| Source Sets | National Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations in Taiwan |
| Language | zh-TW |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | 學位論文 ; thesis |
| Format | 100 |
Page generated in 0.0165 seconds