碩士 / 中原大學 / 企業管理研究所 / 97 / For the past two decades, there is a huge and widespread impact of globalization on Taiwan’s economy and trade. Since Taiwan is lack of natural resources, she obtains raw materials like steel, iron, aluminum, corn, etc. via international trade. Consequently, tramp shipping industry is closely linked to the economic development of Taiwan. Along with the expansion of macroeconomy, Taiwan has a high demand on raw materials increaseing the trading volume via sea shipments and affecting marine transportation indices in worldwide stock markets. This study examines the impact factors of five transportation indexes (i.e. Taiwan, China, U.S.A., Germany, and Norway) from Baltic Dry Index (BDI), various industrial perspectives (CRUspi, industrial indexes, marine transportation indices) and macroeconomic perspectives (stock market indexes and consumer price indexes in five countries). This work also attempts to forecast the transportation indexes in these five countries employing EGARCH model and Back-Propagation Neural Network (BPN) and compares the performances obtained from these two models. The empirical results are summarized below:
1. DJ US Marine Transportation Index has a positive impact on Taiwan's Shipping and Transportation Index; Norway's OSE203030 MARINE index also has a positive impact on DJ US Marine Transportation Index; Both Taiwan Shipping and Transportation Index and Norway's OSE203030 MARINE index have positive impacts on Germany's PRIME TRANSP PERF; Moreover, DJ US Marine Transportation Index and Taiwan Shipping and Transportation Index also have positive impacts on Norway's OSE203030 MARINE index.
2. Upon examining performance indexes of RMSE, MAE and MAPE via EGARCH and BPN models, this study finds that BPN outperforms EGARCH on forecasting transportation indices among five countries.
3. This work also finds that the previous BDI index has a positive impact on Taiwan Shipping and Transportation and DJ US Marine Transportation Indexes. However, the previous BDI index has negative impacts on Chinese Transportation, Germany’s PRIME TRANSP PERF and Norway’s OSE203030 MARINE indexes.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:TW/097CYCU5457024 |
| Date | January 2009 |
| Creators | shy-yan yeh, 葉詩妍 |
| Contributors | none, 胡為善 |
| Source Sets | National Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations in Taiwan |
| Language | zh-TW |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | 學位論文 ; thesis |
| Format | 67 |
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