碩士 / 國立臺灣海洋大學 / 航運管理學系 / 97 / After several times of negotiations, the government of Taiwan and China declared cross-strait direct shipping in December of 2008. Many studies have pointed out that direct shipping reduce transportation costs and bring business opportunities. Therefore we exploit grey theory to forecast container throughput between Taiwan and China then by gravity model to distribution. The data source included container throughput of Offshore Transshipment Center, transferred through a third port and transferred through Hong Kong. First, we will use GM(1,1) to forecast container throughput. Next, we use gravity model to distribute the shipping movement among Taiwan's and China's seaports in 2012. The results indicated that the container throughput concentrate in Shanghai, Shenzhen, Xiamen and Fuzhou currently. After direct shipping, it will concentrate in Shanghai, Shenzhen, Qingdao and Guangzhou. The behavior of transportation will be changed and the geographical position of Xiamen' and Fuzhou' ports will not be so important anymore, and the container throughput will be grown slowly.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:TW/097NTOU5301007 |
| Date | January 2009 |
| Creators | Yu-Ching Wu, 吳雨菁 |
| Contributors | An-Shuen Nir, 倪安順 |
| Source Sets | National Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations in Taiwan |
| Language | zh-TW |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | 學位論文 ; thesis |
| Format | 94 |
Page generated in 0.002 seconds