碩士 / 國立交通大學 / 管理學院碩士在職專班財務金融組 / 98 / With the increasing demands from emerging countries like China and India, the commodity markets have been on the focal point of investment again. Valuation of commodity companies is very different from valuation of other companies-mostly because the value of commodity companies is heavily affected by an external factor i.e. the commodity prices. Other internal factors have relatively lower impacts on the value of commodity companies.
Two methods were suggested by Damodaran to proceed for the valuation of commodity companies. The first one is to estimate the normalize price of the commodity and normalized earnings of that company. Based on the normalized figures, we can estimate the value of the commodity company. The second method is to use the futures prices of the commodity as the forecast prices of the commodity.
In this study, we follow the methods suggested by Damodaran and use the discount cash flow method to value the fast-growing oil exploration and production company, CNOOC Limited with the purpose of demonstrating the valuation of fast-growing commodity companies.
The findings and conclusions are:
1. The net incomes of CNOOC Ltd. are highly related to the oil prices. Based on this relationship, we can estimate the future net incomes from our forecast of future oil prices.
2. The 1-stage FCFF method provides a quick solution but it ignores the growth value of the fast-growing commodity company.
3. The 2-stage FCFF method provides a better estimation of the firm value. However, using the futures prices may bring in the embedded volatility to the valuation. It is recommended to hedge this risk in the futures market.
In our discount cash flow valuation, we estimated the value of the operating assets and the value of the proved reserves was not considered. For an even better valuation, we suggest to include the real option valuation of the proved reserves.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:TW/098NCTU5303022 |
| Date | January 2010 |
| Creators | Teng, Chen-Ho, 鄧振囷 |
| Contributors | Chung, Huimin, 鍾惠民 |
| Source Sets | National Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations in Taiwan |
| Language | zh-TW |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | 學位論文 ; thesis |
| Format | 33 |
Page generated in 0.0178 seconds