碩士 / 國立交通大學 / 資訊科學與工程研究所 / 98 / An effective traffic prevention policy can delay the spread of the novel influenza and can decrease the synchrony in timing of epidemics among all cities and rural areas so as to prevent a sudden surge of infections. By doing so, the limited medical resources (Such as the wards for critical care) will be adequate to save the medical system from collapsing. Furthermore, the delay can buy some time for the authorities to formulate other intervention policies, including the procurement of anti-viral medicines from pharmaceutical companies and the development of new vaccine. However, the potential costs of a traffic prevention policy must be taken into account. For example, the policy may impedes the traffic and affects local economic activity.
Due to the great complexity of the transportation network, tailoring a cost-efficient traffic prevention policy could be challenging. In this thesis, a genetic algorithm was applied for finding an optimal traffic prevention policy. Because the heterogeneity of the transportation networks affects the temporal and spatial progression of infectious diseases dramatically, we investigate the planning of efficient traffic prevention policies based on the complete topology structure of the transportation network. With the combination of the deterministic compartmental model—which describes local infection dynamics among individuals—and the transportation infrastructure in Taiwan, we are able to stimulate the transmission dynamics of pandemic novel influenza,
Our experimental results show that our proposed genetic algorithm is able to evolve the optimal traffic prevention policies according to the sources of the outbreaks and the timing of applying the policies respectively. In the future, we can employ this model and genetic algorithms to plan other public health policies, such as ways to make proper distribution of finite anti-viral medicines to cities in Taiwan, and thus contain the outbreak of pandemic novel influenza.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:TW/098NCTU5394033 |
| Date | January 2009 |
| Creators | Chen, Shuo-Huang, 陳碩璜 |
| Contributors | Sun, Chuen-Tsai, 孫春在 |
| Source Sets | National Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations in Taiwan |
| Language | zh-TW |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | 學位論文 ; thesis |
| Format | 110 |
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