碩士 / 國立高雄第一科技大學 / 運籌管理所 / 98 / Much transport needs gasoline as energy source, the effect caused by gasoline price fluctuation on mode choice behavior cannot be ignored. Recently, related mode choice studies collect cross-sectional data by questionaire survey to observe individual preference. However, gasoline price belongs to time-series data that cannot combine with cross-sectional data, therefore this study applies aggregate panel data to estimate disaggregate model, such that with lower cost of data collection, can be updated regularly and analyzes problems that traditional mode choice behavior using cross-sectional data cannot dispute. Moreover, this study analyzes variation of consumer surplus and environmental impact based on estimated result as a fundation of sustainable urban transportation.
In light of the data collected, mode choice behavior model be constructed by multinomial logit model and nested logit model. The result reveals that nested logit model comforms to utility maximization. Additionally, bus and MRT are correlated, so nested logit model is as suggested model in the study. The result also indicates that gasoline price, fare and others significantly affect market share of public transit.
Direct elasticity analysis shows that major elasticity values are similar to related literature. In cross elasticity analysis, MRT fare and bus frequency are important to its competitiors. Then, to estimate gasoline price before floating price mechanism based on OPEC oil price. From the difference of estimated and real gasoline price, we discuss variation of consumer surplus and environmental impact.
Policy evaluation illustrates that if gasoline price be reduces by deliberate intension, it will induce welfare loss and air pollusion. It is not beneficial for sustainable development.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:TW/098NKIT5682025 |
| Date | January 2010 |
| Creators | Jiun-Chin Chiou, 邱俊欽 |
| Contributors | Chieh-Yu Hsiao, 蕭傑諭 |
| Source Sets | National Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations in Taiwan |
| Language | zh-TW |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | 學位論文 ; thesis |
| Format | 85 |
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