碩士 / 國立臺北大學 / 自然資源與環境管理研究所在職專班 / 98 / According to the prediction of World Energy Outlook 2009 from International Energy Agency(IEA), the world demand for energy and carbon dioxide (CO2) emission will increase 40% and CO2 emission of transportation sector will also increase 50% and 80% in 2030 and 2050 respectively. In order to face up to the challenge of energy crisis and the pressure from global CO2 emission reduction, positive management of energy usage and development of low-carbon energy are important for energy security, energy saving, and CO2 emission reduction efficiency.
The CO2 emission of road transportation sector was the majority for over than 90% of total emission and became the main contributor. Through System Dynamics approach, we’ve established a road transportation model to analyze the correlation between vehicle types, the amount of vehicles, intensity of transit, infrastructure availability, energy consumption and CO2 emissions, meanwhile, four scenarios were designed as followed to simulate CO2 emission in 2050.
Scenario 1 (technical) – raising fuel efficiency for new vehicles; Scenario 2 (policy) – developing high fuel efficiency cars and alternative fuel. Scenario 3 (economic) – imposing tax on energy and environment. Scenario 4 (hybrid) – combination of Scenarios listed above. Furthermore, we categorized and subdivided them into 10 scenarios. Scenario 1A – yearly rate of progression set as 2%; Scenario 1B - achieving the new standard light-duty vehicle of US; Scenario 2A – general promotion scenario; Scenario 2B – strenuously promotion scenario; Scenario 3A – impose tax on energy and environment; Scenario 4A – combine Scenario 1B with 2A; Scenario 4B – combine
Scenario 1B with 2B; Scenario 4C – combine Scenario 1B with 3A; Scenario 4D – combination of Scenario 1B, 2A and 3A; Scenario 4E – combination of Scenario 1B, 2B and 3A.
Scenario 4A nearly approached to our policy target, nevertheless, the result revealed continuously increasing CO2 emission. Compared to 2005, in the year of 2020, there’ll be 22.26% increase in energy consumption and 21.48% increase in CO2 emission. The rate of achieving the goal of energy saving efficiency and CO2 emission reduction was 12.01% and 16.43% respectively in 2020, furthermore, 13.26% and 16.11% respectively in 2025. The energy consumption in 2050 will be 25,610 million liters which increases 89.29% compared with nowadays; CO2 emission in 2050 will be 59.33 million tons which increases 65.33% compared with nowadays. There’s no significant effect in energy saving and CO2 emission reduction.
Scenario 4E was the most effective strategy. Although there was a remarkable reduction in energy saving (43.20%) and CO2 emission (48.67%) due to the well-developed Hybrids Electric Vehicle (HEV) and Electric Vehicle (EV) in 2025, it still failed to achieve the objective. The total energy consumption, including alternative fuels, is 17,273 million liters (increases 32.77%); CO2 emission is 39.90 million tons (increases 11.17%) respectively in 2050. The prevalence of charging stations and hydrogen fuelling stations should increase up over 50% in 2011 and 2036 respectively.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:TW/098NTPU1399004 |
| Date | January 2010 |
| Creators | Ya-Wen Lai, 賴雅雯 |
| Contributors | Ssu-Li Chang, 張四立 |
| Source Sets | National Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations in Taiwan |
| Language | zh-TW |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | 學位論文 ; thesis |
| Format | 184 |
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