碩士 / 國立臺灣大學 / 生物環境系統工程學研究所 / 98 / Taiwan is located in the Western Pacific typhoon zone, and typhoons and its inducing heavy rains often result in different scale of landslides. Hence, rainfall and other hydrologic factors, as well as special geographic, geologic factors in Taiwan are selected as landslide factors. Even though, the topic about thousands of earthquakes a year might increase the probability and scale of landslides is seldom cared about by researchers. Therefore, this study assumes that every earthquake will affect the geological structure, causes structural damages and uses cumulative horizontal seismic acceleration to represent the cumulative energy of earthquakes. That is to consider the potential earthquake damage Not destruction of the external to explore the effect of earthquakes on landslides. Is it possible that seismic factor can increase the accuracy of landslide susceptibility model? This research will discuss about it.
To understand how the seismic factor influences the landslide susceptibility model, we collected all landslides area after Typhoon Aere in 2004, which is used as a baseline of landslide. We also collected Cumulate Horizontal Peak Ground Acceleration of sixteen events of seismic disasters from 1991 to 2004 in Taiwan, the DEM from SWCB in 2004 and average annual rainfall from 2000 to 2004. In this study, we investigate eleven factors of landslides. And, GIS and Logistic regression are used to get two landslide susceptibility models, which are carried out with and without seismic factor. Meanwhile, five kinds of test methods such as classification error matrix, likelihood ratio test, analogous R2 index, simple statistical indicators and the ROC curve are calculated to determine how the seismic factor affect the landslide susceptibility model. Then, the landslide data in 2003 and 2006, and Shihmen Reservoir landslide locations after Typhoon Sinlaku in 2008 are collected to evaluate the accuracy of landslide susceptibility model. Finally, the spatial distribution of landslide in Taiwan are plotted and compared with the result of Logistic regression, and exploration of the relation between landslide and landslide factors.
The result showed that the landslide susceptibility model which adds seismic factor is better on predicting the occurrence of landslide. So it showed that the assessment of the landslide susceptibility with historical data must consider the effect of the seismic factor to avoid misjudge the occurrence of landslide in earthquake-prone area.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:TW/098NTU05404063 |
| Date | January 2010 |
| Creators | Po-Wei Lin, 林柏維 |
| Contributors | Hung-Pin Huang, 黃宏斌 |
| Source Sets | National Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations in Taiwan |
| Language | zh-TW |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | 學位論文 ; thesis |
| Format | 87 |
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