碩士 / 國立交通大學 / 管理學院運輸物流學程 / 99 / Cargo demand is an important basis for implementing or adjusting relevant shipping service. Recently, the demands of Liner shipping containers changed drastically. Therefore, how to cope with the rapid changing market and take proper actions in response to those changes immediately becomes one of the key issues for carriers. Experienced managers can predict changes in cargo demands in advance, and respond to those changes in a timely manner. However, establishing that kind of experience takes time and is hard to clearly articulate the rules to their successors. Thus, the current study adopts quantitative models to predict cargo demands for a short-term period, which is expected to provide Carriers as a reference to adjust their operating policies whenever necessary.
The purpose of this study focuses on examining factors that influence the container volume of a liner shipping route and developing a model to reasonably forecast changes of container route volume. Regression analysis methods were applied to find out factors that influence the liner shipping container volume exported from Far East region to North America region and an ARIMA model was developed to forecast future volume changes. Results indicate that among many selected Macroeconomics indicators, adjusted GDP of USA、Wholesale Price Index of Hong Kong and Industrial Product Index of Japan are the significant influential factors. Moreover, the forecast errors of the generated ARIMA model are relatively smaller if seasonal adjusted container volume time series data is used. Lastly, this study provided four seasons of year 2011’s container volume forecast with plus/minus 10% error range for Carriers’ reference to adjust their policies.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:TW/099NCTU5725006 |
| Date | January 2011 |
| Creators | Lu, Wan-Pei, 盧宛佩 |
| Contributors | Hwang, Cherng-Chwan, 黃承傳 |
| Source Sets | National Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations in Taiwan |
| Language | zh-TW |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | 學位論文 ; thesis |
| Format | 96 |
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