碩士 / 長榮大學 / 航運管理學系碩士班 / 100 / The global economic and trade has been changing rapidly. For the past few years, the fluctuation of steel price has had a high level of volatility, and caused a significant effect upon many relative industries, especially for bulk shipping industry. In the dry bulk market, Baltic Capesize which carries the goods include iron ore and coal, accompanied with the most violent variation of fright fare and faces relatively high risks.
In this paper we adapt the VARMA model to describe the relationship between the BCI and the ACRU index. After investigating and analyzing, the results of this research are as follows:
(1) The BCI and the ACRU index for these two series on the best model of each other are VARMA(2,2).
(2) The BCI and the ACRU index have two-way influence relationship.
(3) The ACRU index leads the BCI.
The research expects the findings to contribute more detailed and accurate information of better operational business strategies to investor or ship carriers.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:TW/100CJU00301004 |
| Date | January 2012 |
| Creators | Liang, Han Uei, 梁涵葳 |
| Contributors | Chou, Ming Tao, 周明道 |
| Source Sets | National Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations in Taiwan |
| Language | zh-TW |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | 學位論文 ; thesis |
| Format | 57 |
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