Study of Modeling Prediction in Annual Productions of Tilapia, Grouper, White Shrimp and Hard Clam in Taiwan / 建立養殖漁業生產量檢核模式-以吳郭魚、石斑魚、白蝦及文蛤為例

碩士 / 國立臺灣海洋大學 / 水產養殖學系 / 100 / For purposes of upgrades in accuracy behind fishery statistics, Taiwan's partial cultured species were collected and implied into production yield estimate models with different conditions to compare difference between production estimates and annual report statistics.
The findings indicate that smaller variance trend was incurred with production estimates of tilapia and hard clam of fishery annual statistics report where the estimates are all higher than annual statistics, while larger fluctuation was incurred with production estimates from aquaculture management system which is higher than annual statistics and shows underestimation behind production of tilapia and hard clam. The production estimates of grouper used in the aquaculture management system are clearly higher than that in fishery annual statistics report which was caused by issues related to governmental subsidies for disasters that overstated information was often provided by aquaculture industry for compensation of agricultural damages. The production estimates of white shrimp by use the fry yeild on the fishery annual statistics report was clearly higher than that of the fishery annual statistics report where the root causes were related with annual of white shrimp fry and the personnel who handles this part amended it with references to historic annual production.
The production estimates of tilapia by use the fry yeild in the fishery annual statistics report used in the study are more accurate than that of other models, where the root cause were that the production of tilapia was amended in 2000 which oriented the estimates to be positioned right gradually, while the production estimates of grouper, white shrimp and hard clam using aquaculture area are more reasonable than that of stocking models. Difference is clearly indicated between both of two systems.
Establishment of yield estimate system is imperial to improve the fishery annual statistics report accordingly which effectively shortens time in survey and accuracy of data. In addition, intensification of declaration standards for stocking in aquaculture management system and redefinition of aquaculture areas in the aquaculture management system and fishery annual statistics report for correctness and reasonability of data survey and verification may effectively enhance degrees of matches between Taiwan fishery annual statistics report and actual fishery production.

Identiferoai:union.ndltd.org:TW/100NTOU5086010
Date January 2012
CreatorsYan-Ying Chiou, 邱彥穎
ContributorsSha Miao, 繆峽
Source SetsNational Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations in Taiwan
Languagezh-TW
Detected LanguageEnglish
Type學位論文 ; thesis
Format177

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