碩士 / 國立臺灣海洋大學 / 水產養殖學系 / 100 / Sea bass is a common culture species in Taiwan. However, the risk of price volatility is unsteady on sea bass product. The price was reached 165 NT dollars per kilogram in 1989, and declined gradually year by year to only 59.4 NT dollars per kilogram in 2001. Recently, sea bass product price was 112.4 NT dollars per kilogram in 2011. Production oversupply is the biggest influence factor to the price volatility, and it has been said that “cheap grain hurts the farmer”, sea bass farmer suffer most when the price falls down.
To understand status and economic efficiency of the industry, researchers are used to analyzing status of sea bass industry by statistic data in “Fisheries statistical yearbook Taiwan, Kinmen and Matsu area”, in order to make advisement and recommendations to government and farmers. Nevertheless, accuracy of data still is doubtable due to the Gaps between statistical data and actual yield. This will cause status misjudgment for the fishery sector, and also cause improper policy planning.
This study focus on “Estimate the annual yields of Taiwan sea bass culture industry” and “Simulate the impact of economic trends on the sea bass culture industry in Taiwan”. By doing so, we can understand the actual annual yield and development trends of sea bass culture industry in Taiwan, and set up the industrial development strategy.
The basic production information (stocking density, survival rate and yield per unit area etc.) is collected to establish estimate models (stocking model, unit area yield model and stocking density model) of the sea bass yield. And we use the MARKET model to integrate with the result of yield estimate models to simulate the effect of yield, cost and net profit at different economic conditions (income, product price).
As showed above, the disparity between estimate models (33,000 tons) and data in statistical yearbook (23,000 tons) of the yield of Taiwan sea bass culture industry in 2010 was almost 10,000 tons. In addition, it was observed that sea bass yield could grow steadily under present circumstances, but affected by price fluctuation obviously. Price growth rate is mean economic constraint in sea bass culture industry. Income growth rate also affects total cost and demand in sea bass farming. Although, the higher income growth rate accompanies with higher demand, rapid increase of total cost over the long period will cause decrease of profit.
Result in this study suggests that: 1. Use the data of fry yield in statistical yearbook into stocking model is suggested to estimate the yield of sea bass industry in Taiwan. 2. The unit area yield model and stocking density model use the data of farming area in aquaculture management system is suggested to estimate the yield of sea bass industry in Taiwan and each county. The yield of Taiwan sea bass can grow steadily under existing conditions, yet secondary strategies such as industrial transition or find potential markets are important to improve profits of sea bass culture industry when the product price is steady or decreasing.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:TW/100NTOU5086013 |
| Date | January 2012 |
| Creators | Wei-Chih Lin, 林韋志 |
| Contributors | Sha Miao, 繆峽 |
| Source Sets | National Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations in Taiwan |
| Language | zh-TW |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | 學位論文 ; thesis |
| Format | 135 |
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