碩士 / 中華大學 / 運輸科技與物流管理學系碩士班 / 101 / According to related literatures, studies of Taiwanese off-shore islands focus on tourism resource, tourist attitude and ecological sustainability of single island. The cooperation and competition of island tourism are rarely analyzed. The purpose of this study are trying to figure out the cooperation and competition among off-shore islands and forecasting tourist volume. The model is based on the well-known Lotka-Volterra model. Six main Taiwanese off-shore islands, which are Matsu, Kinmen, Penghu, Lyudao, Lanya and Little Liouciou are categorized into three groups according to their geographic location. Each group is modeled by a dynamic competition model. Furthermore, external effects, which may influence the tourist volume of off-shore islands are considered herein. The external effects considered in this study are oil price, GDP per capita, tourist volume to Taiwan, Chinese tourist volume to Taiwan and the total number of local tour. The model is calibrated and forecasted by Eview7. The results are summarized as follows. For Matsu, the infrastructure is in place. The unpopular review and past tourist experience becomes an obstacle. For Kinmen and Penghu, positive review helps attract travelers. Kinmen has better and more advanced infrastructure than Penghu. Due to the geographically proximity, Penghu is the direct threat to draw tourists away from Kinmen. It is recommended that Kinmen continue to improve its overall sightseeing environment. Most People who have traveled to Little Liouciou and Lyudao had great impression that increased their popularity. Lanyu was less popular in that regards. Lyudao offers better infrastructure than Liouciou and Lanyu. Lyudao is in the position to steal customers away from Little Liouciou and Lanyu while more popular Little Liouciou grabs the shares from Lanyu. From the conomic standpoint, the increase in average GDP has positive impact on travelers’desire to sightsee on Matsu, Kinmen, Penghu, and Lyudao. However, it has an adverse effect to Little Liouciou. The MAPE of our model is less than 10%, which is high accurate rediction. Therefore the model presented in this model can forecast and analyze tourist volume of
Taiwanese off-shore islands successfully.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:TW/101CHPI5425023 |
| Date | January 2013 |
| Creators | Huang,Ching-Yun, 黃敬芸 |
| Contributors | Lo,Shih-Ching, 羅仕京 |
| Source Sets | National Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations in Taiwan |
| Language | zh-TW |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | 學位論文 ; thesis |
| Format | 75 |
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