碩士 / 國立中央大學 / 遙測科技碩士學位學程 / 101 / In order to analyze the development of tropical cyclone, it is necessary to
investigate the difference characteristic between the development and
non-development systems by using objective methods. The main objective of
this study is to discuss the environment parameters between the development
and non-development cloud clusters which can be further processed systematic
classification. Furthermore, it can fully and completely generalizes the
differences between environmental conditions and provides as a reference to the
tropical cyclone forecast.
In this study, we analyzed the typhoon cases over the Northwest Pacific
Ocean from 2000 to 2009 by the JTWC best track and ECMWF Interim
Reanalysis Data. And we determine the environmental air-sea parameters’
thresholds by Box Difference Index (BDI). The environmental air-sea
parameters include: 1) 850hPa relative vorticity, 2) Sea surface temperature, 3)
850hPa relative humidity, 4) 900hPa divergence, 5) 850-200hPa Vertical wind
shear, 6) Thermal energy, 7) Total precipitation. The results adopt the weights
method and show as probability of tropical cyclone development.
This study results are verified by using the independent cases from 2010 to
2012 and show the good performance of the Hit rate up to 0.95. Moreover, these
results can determine precisely the prediction accuracy reached above 60% and
averagely 49.9 hours ahead of warning form JTWC. If the system set the
development possibility about 60% as false alarm threshold, the False Alarm
Ratio (FAR) of the systems are 0.24.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:TW/101NCU05105110 |
| Date | January 2013 |
| Creators | Jung-fu Wu, 吳戎富 |
| Contributors | Gin-rong Liu, 劉振榮 |
| Source Sets | National Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations in Taiwan |
| Language | zh-TW |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | 學位論文 ; thesis |
| Format | 91 |
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