碩士 / 國立臺灣海洋大學 / 航運管理學系 / 101 / Cruise market in Asia continues to grow in recent years. Taiwan, which is located at the intersection of Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia, is the hub of transportation for passengers and cargoes, having great potential of developing cruise market. This article analyzes the cruise market of the four biggest international ports in Taiwan, based on the information given by the Ministry of Transportation and Communication (2012). This article uses Grey GM (1, 1) forecasting theory, then corrects with Recursive residual to improve accuracy in order to analyze the growth rate of passengers transportation of the four biggest international ports in Taiwan, conducting a forecasting method of cruise market development in Taiwan’s international ports and uses Exponential Smoothing to compare accuracy. The results are as following:
RRGM (1, 1) theory is better than GM (1, 1) theory in forecasting the amount of passengers coming in and out the four biggest international ports in Taiwan, while GM (1, 1) theory is better Exponential Smoothing. Under the rising growth of cruise market in Asia and the developing of cruise tourism in Taiwan, forecast the developmental trend of passengers coming in and out the four biggest international ports in Taiwan till 2015. While the number of people in Taichung Harbor will increase to 551,233 people, with an increasing rate of 63%, which is the highest increasing rate among the four biggest international ports in Taiwan, the number of people in Keelung harbor will have a decrease of 19,421 people, having a reduction of 4.8%. The number of people in Kaohsiung harbor also will have a decrease of 18,804 people and a reduction of 21%. As for Hualien Harbor, an increase of 4,455 people and an increasing rate of 22% is forecasted. Comprehensively, the total increase of people of the four biggest international ports in Taiwan is 31,806 people, which makes 739,958 people, with an increasing rate of 4%. That is to say, the passengers transportation of the four biggest international ports in Taiwan will continue to expand and grow, giving Taiwan the potential of being a cruise hub in the future.
The outcomes of this research will assist government agencies in formulating port policies and development strategies.
Keywords: Cruise, Passengers transportation, Grey method, Exponential Smoothing
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:TW/101NTOU5301021 |
| Date | January 2013 |
| Creators | Huan-Long Liou, 劉煥龍 |
| Contributors | Dr. Hsuan-Shih Lee, Dr. Cheng-Chi Chung, 李選士 博士, 鍾政棋 博士 |
| Source Sets | National Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations in Taiwan |
| Language | zh-TW |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | 學位論文 ; thesis |
| Format | 67 |
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