碩士 / 國立臺灣海洋大學 / 系統工程暨造船學系 / 101 / Shipbuilding industry is a high capital industry with high risk that is also deeply influenced by shipping market. Especially when the shipping market in depression, shipyards often have to compete each other from cheaper price or no ship to be made. Bulk carriers are divided into Capesize, Panamax, Supramax &; Handy Size, four major types. They play an important role of shipping market of raw materials.
In the previous shipbuilding engineering research, most are related about fluid dynamics, structure design and automatic electronically controlled technical sophistication. However, the literature of the new- building price is less to find. This study adopts the unit root test, vector autoregressive model and Granger causality test steps for variable analysis. The empirical results identify the lead-lag relationship changes between the four major types of the price of newbuilding bulk carrier and variables before and after the financial tsunami. The testing results show that the BDI has leading property in the four types of new-building ship prices through the VAR model with cointegration test before and after the financial tsunami. In contrast, other variables of the raw materials have no such tendency. The Granger causality test of the new-building price and other various variables shows that the BDI only influences the new ship-building prices. As for the oil price, it has no cause-effect relationship with the new ship-building prices of the four types of bulk carriers before the financial tsunami; while after the financial tsunami, the oil price has cause-effect with the new-building prices of the Panamax and Supramax each other.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:TW/101NTOU5345003 |
| Date | January 2013 |
| Creators | Cheng-Chiang Huang, 黃政強 |
| Contributors | Jian-Ren Chang, Heng-Chih Chou, 張建仁, 周恆志 |
| Source Sets | National Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations in Taiwan |
| Language | zh-TW |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | 學位論文 ; thesis |
| Format | 95 |
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