碩士 / 國立成功大學 / 交通管理科學系 / 102 / Demand forecasting is an important issue due to the higher cost and techniques in the railway transportation system, but the demand may be underestimated due to neglect the induced demand. Induced demand can be defined in terms of additional trips that would be made from the improvement of system or travel conditions. The catchment of induced demand may help operators to make the strategic decisions more efficient for examples with purchasing or building new passenger carriages and facilities. This study is aim at build mode choice and induced demand model for Kaohsiung light rail transit.
We utilized the discrete choice model which incorporating the latent variable including techniques acceptance, planned behaviors and recreation specialization as Hybrid Discrete Choice Model （HDCM） to model the mode choice with both tourists and commuters with sample size 369 and 362. The result of the choice probability about LRT is 57.75% in tourists and 23.35% in commuters, and the model fit in adjusted Rho square is 0.38 and 0.26.
In the induced demand model, we adopted the log-linear regression to estimate the induced demand with tourists growth and demography growth data. The model estimate the induced demand for tourism and citizen is 8.78% and 0.51%. We also estimated the elasticity with the intention of induced demand and light rail choice probability with 2.72% in tourists and 10.75% in commuters. The result of induced demand estimation and strategic implications will be presented and discussed.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:TW/102NCKU5119132 |
| Date | January 2014 |
| Creators | Hsiao-PoYang, 楊孝博 |
| Contributors | Yung-Hsiang Cheng, 鄭永祥 |
| Source Sets | National Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations in Taiwan |
| Language | zh-TW |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | 學位論文 ; thesis |
| Format | 142 |
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