碩士 / 國立臺灣海洋大學 / 航運管理學系 / 102 / Bulk shipping industry is a capital-intensive industry. In addition to the strong competition between shipping companies globally and the highly fluctuating freight rate, every decision made by bulk shipping operator needs to evaluate freight market development to avoid various risks they encountered. Since the Baltic Dry Index has been published by the Baltic Exchange in 1985, many scholars have been dedicating to find out the way which can effectively predict the index. However, the past studies mostly applied econometric techniques to forecast freight index, which is more accurate predicted in short term than their prediction accuracy in the long term. Therefore, this study uses different technique to investigate the key factors of the BDI to simplify the way of Index movement predictions. Firstly, we collected the various factors from literatures review and categorize them into different groups of criteria by interviewed three experts and scholars, Secondly we post the questionnaires to the experts who have sufficient experiences in bulk shipping industry. As there are inter-dependence relationships between the factors the authors studied, thus Analysis Network Processes (ANP) is the more appropriate technique for analyzing the survey results than the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) technique. The results show that the demand of cargos, the economic growth rate of sunrise industries and price of cargos are the most important factors among all. The practical and theoretical implications to shipping operators such as shipowners and charterers are discussed.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:TW/102NTOU5301075 |
| Date | January 2014 |
| Creators | Cheng, Chiao-Yun, 鄭喬云\ |
| Contributors | LIRN, Taih-Cherng, 林泰誠 |
| Source Sets | National Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations in Taiwan |
| Language | zh-TW |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | 學位論文 ; thesis |
| Format | 64 |
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