碩士 / 國立臺灣海洋大學 / 航運管理學系 / 102 / The trend of globalization and regionalization led to the integration of world market. Countries start to seek for opportunities to sign up for free trade agreements (FTAs) and regional economic integration. Despite the enlargement of Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) andTrans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), Taiwan still has not achieved a breakthrough in nearby economic regions. Shipping transportation plays an indispensable part in international trade, and its development is deeply related with the fluctuation of global economic. Therefore, investigating tonnage development will help to understand the economic and trade of regional economic integrations. This study adopts the latest statistics from the institute of shipping economics and logistics (ISL) to thoroughly analyze the tonnage structures of TPP members. Furthermore, the GM(1,1) Model and the Recursive Residual GM(1,1) of Grey theory and Exponential Smoothing is applied to forecast the tonnage growth trends of these countries, and the accuracy of prediction is compared by using Mean Absolute Mean (MAE), Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) and Root Mean Square Error(RMSE). Results are showed as below:
1. In terms of ship registration, Peru is the only member increasing in the percentage of national flag tonnage and decreasing in the percentage of foreign flag tonnage; the other members including Taiwan increase in the percentage of foreign flags and decrease in the percentage of national flags.In terms of the tonnage structure of registered flag, the numbers and deadweight tonnage of vessels in the world are increasing, and so are TPP. Both of their deadweight tonnage growth rates exceed growth rates of numbers of vessels. In terms of main vessel types, Singapore, Malaysia,U.S.,Canada, Mexico, Chile, Australia andPeru has the highest ratio in tankers among registered flag, Japan and Taiwan in bulk carriers and Vietnam in general cargo ships.
2. In terms of tonnage development prediction, Vietnam is the only country decreasing in deadweight tonnage; the other members including Taiwan continue to increase in deadweight tonnage.
3. In terms of tonnage developmentprediction of registered flag, Singapore, Vietnam, Canada, Peru and Brunei will continue to grow in deadweight tonnage, and Japan,Malaysia, U.S.,Mexico,Chile, , Australia, New Zealand and Taiwan will decrease in deadweight tonnage.
These findings will assist government authorities in formulating supportive shipping policy, and shipping companies in making operational strategies.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:TW/102NTOU5301078 |
| Date | January 2014 |
| Creators | Soong, Piin-Lin, 宋品霖 |
| Contributors | Chung, Cheng-Chi, 鍾政棋 |
| Source Sets | National Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations in Taiwan |
| Language | zh-TW |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | 學位論文 ; thesis |
| Format | 56 |
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