碩士 / 大葉大學 / 國際企業管理學系碩士班 / 103 / The purpose of this study is want to know the interactive relationship among the real estate market, the stock market and risk factors around the macroeconomic control policies of china on special economic zone.The research uses ADF Test, Granger Causality Test, Impulse response function, Co-integration Test and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). This study uses monthly data form Jan 2008 to May 2014. The study want to find out the feedback relationships among variables in long term period and short term period.
The results showed: (1) At the earlier period of macro-control policies, stock index is leading Shenzhen HPI, but at the later period of macro-control policies, there is no causal connection. There is long-term equilibrium relationship between Shenzhen HPI and stock index. (2) At the earlier period of macro-control policies, stock index is leading Xiamen HPI, but at the later period of macro-control policies, there is no causal connection. There is long-term equilibrium relationship between Xiamen HPI and stock index. (3) At the earlier period of macro-control policies, stock index is leading Hainan HPI, but at the later period of macro-control policies, there is no causal connection. In the early there is no long-term equilibrium relationship, but later there is long-term equilibrium relationship. (4) At the earlier period of macro-control policies, interest rate is leading Shenzhen HPI, but at the later period of macro-control policies, there is no causal connection. In the early there is no long-term equilibrium relationship, but later there is long-term equilibrium relationship. (5) At the later period of macro-control policies, interest rate is leading Xiamen HPI, but at the earlier period of macro-control policies, there is no causal connection. In the early there is no long-term equilibrium relationship, but later there is long-term equilibrium relationship. (6) At the earlier period of macro-control policies, interest rate is leading Hainan HPI, but at the later period of macro-control policies, Hainan HPI is leading interest rate. In the early there is no long-term equilibrium relationship, but later there is long-term equilibrium relationship. (7) At the earlier period of macro-control policies, CPI is leading Shenzhen HPI, but at the later period of macro-control policies, there is no causal connection. In the early there is no long-term equilibrium relationship, but later there is long-term equilibrium relationship. (8) Macro-control policies, at the period time of earlier stage and later stage. There are no causal connection between Xiamen HPI and CPI. In the early there is no long-term equilibrium relationship, but later there is long-term equilibrium relationship. (9) Macro-control policies, at the period time of earlier stage and later stage. There are no causal connection between Hainan HPI and CPI. In the early there is no long-term equilibrium relationship, but later there is long-term equilibrium relationship. (10) At the earlier period of macro-control policies, interest rate is leading stock index, but at the later period of macro-control policies, there is no causal connection. In the early there is no long-term equilibrium relationship, but later there is long-term equilibrium relationship. (11) Macro-control policies, at the period time of earlier stage and later stage. There are Stock price index and CPI demonstrated two-way causality. In the early there is no long-term equilibrium relationship, but later there is long-term equilibrium relationship.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:TW/103DYU00321010 |
| Date | January 2015 |
| Creators | Wang Hsiu- Hung, 王秀宏 |
| Contributors | Lai wen quai, 賴文魁 |
| Source Sets | National Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations in Taiwan |
| Language | zh-TW |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | 學位論文 ; thesis |
| Format | 204 |
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