碩士 / 國立成功大學 / 交通管理科學系 / 103 / Because of public interest, public transport construction is indispensable. But when transit system companies fall into bad finance, the governments need to help and subsidize a lot. It makes the local governments a financial burden. To improve the financial condition, many cities make reformation on public transportation. The study take Taichung and Kaohsiung city as cases to discuss the effect of public transport transformation, and to measure the relationship between costs and passenger volume. The study use system dynamics to investigate feedback loops between variables and establish the model, which includes four subsystems: Public Transport Performance, Public Finance, Urban Finance, and Population. Under growth path, moving average, and policy oriented forecasting methods and experts’ advices, during 2010-2018 Taichung city has a great growth on Public Transport Performance, the Public Finance is good under government’s subsidy, and the population is stable under steady annual revenue and expenditure. And Kaohsiung city has steady growth on Public Transport Performance, the Public Finance does not improve apparently, social increase population increases slowly under the surplus of annual revenue and expenditure. Furthermore, in scenario analysis, to achieve 3-5% public transport performance growth every year, Taichung city will need to bear a burden on 2-5billion dollars and Kaohsiung will need to bear a burden on 1-4billion dollars. The study makes suggestions about how to increase passengers and select perfect financial resource combination based on bus reformation effects characteristic in the end.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:TW/103NCKU5119019 |
| Date | January 2015 |
| Creators | I-TingHuang, 黃宜庭 |
| Contributors | Kuo-Ping Huang, 黃國平 |
| Source Sets | National Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations in Taiwan |
| Language | zh-TW |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | 學位論文 ; thesis |
| Format | 124 |
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