碩士 / 國立臺灣海洋大學 / 航運管理學系 / 103 / Second-hand ship trading is one of the major businesses of bulk shipping industry, if it is possible to choose the best time to buy low and sell high, it would help shipowners to improve their profitability. This study applied four popular technical analysis indicators in financial markets including moving average, filter rules, Bollinger bands and bias to ship tradings. By setting different parameters, the best time to buy and sell ships could be figured out according to the dynamics of ship prices. In this study, sampling time of second-hand ship price data was divided into two subperiods. The first subperiod is the “model construct period”（from June 1986 to June 2003）, and the best technical analysis indicators is found in this period. The second subperiod is “performance testing period”（from July 2003 to June 2013）, which is used to verify the investment performance of best technical indicators in various ships. Our results showed that compared to the buy-and-hold strategy, the technical analysis approach for ship trading can obtain higher return; even when financial cost is considered, the return of the technical analysis approach is still higher than that of buy-and-hold strategy. However, after considering the liquidity of ship tradings, only Capesize ships can obtain positive returns.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:TW/103NTOU5301002 |
| Date | January 2014 |
| Creators | Lin, Zong-Yi, 林宗毅 |
| Contributors | Chou, Heng-Chih, 周恆志 |
| Source Sets | National Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations in Taiwan |
| Language | zh-TW |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | 學位論文 ; thesis |
| Format | 52 |
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