碩士 / 國立臺灣海洋大學 / 航運管理學系 / 104 / The timing of selling and purchasing used bulk carriers is related to the business strategies of shipping companies. Therefore, grasping the used ship price is the crucial point for shipping companies to make better decisions. This study, which is based on the data from Clarkson research, takes Capesize, Panamax, Supramax and Handysize for examples. According to the practice, the ship ages are classified into fives years and ten years. The GM(1,1) and Rolling GM(1,1) model are adopted to analyze the trend of used ship price. This study uses average ship price per month, taking different period of data (4-11) and different period of each data (average ship price, 1-4 month) into consideration to build the Grey Model to forecast the following 3 prediction values and calculate the accuracy of the prediction. The result shows
1.Taking four periods of data and using a month average ship price are most reasonable. And Capesize and Panamax are suitable for using Rolling GM(1,1) model. Supramax and Handysize, on the other hand, are suitable for using GM(1,1) model. Furthermore, the Mean Absolute Percentage Error(MAPE) are all below 10%.
2.In general, it is available to use only few useful statistics to predict the ship price precisely. The study concludes different forecasting models for each type of bulk carrier, and proves the feasibility of predicting the price of used bulk carrier.
With these findings, shipping companies and investors can make business decisions and catch the right timing on purchasing and selling used ships.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:TW/104NTOU5301050 |
| Date | January 2016 |
| Creators | Chen, Jian-Hao, 陳建豪 |
| Contributors | Chung, Cheng-Chi, 鍾政棋 |
| Source Sets | National Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations in Taiwan |
| Language | zh-TW |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | 學位論文 ; thesis |
| Format | 82 |
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