碩士 / 國立臺灣海洋大學 / 商船學系 / 104 / Shipping has become more and more important for global transportation and trading nowadays. However it also introduces marine casualties and has never been relieved although many high-tech equipments have been employed. The cost of the damages of the economy, as well as the society, is always tremendous once the accidents have happened.
Some statistic data reveals that most of the maritime accidents related to human factors. Therefore, in order to effectively prevent the similar accidents from happening again, the human factors involved and their context which caused the accidents to happen must to be identified, and then the risk factors and the critical human factors are able to be targeted. Hence, the risk control options (RCOs) can therefore be established and the cost-benefit of those RCOs can be evaluated. This study aims at proposing a method that bases on a previous research work and (Formal Safety Assessment, FSA), which is recommended by IMO (International Maritime Organization), to optimize the analysis procedure. In the analysis steps of FSA, it can optimize the method and provide the decision makers a systematic flow control to identify the root causes of the accidents, the critical causal factors, the RCOs, the evaluation of the cost-benefit of variant RCOs and other relevant important information. That is, in relation to the expert judgement expression, this study applies fuzzy linguatic variables in order to provide a intuitive way for acquiring the judgements, as well as achieving the concensus of those judgements.
In this present thesis, an actual case is used to demonstrate the advantages of the analytic method using fuzzy linguistic variables to acquire experts’ judgments and to achieve their consensus. This approach can not only provides the advantages of intuitive, flexible and simple way to acquire the experts’ judgments, it can also optimize the cost-benefit evaluation of the RCOs assessed within the analytic procedure for decision making in order to secure the accuracy of the information given.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:TW/104NTOU5728006 |
| Date | January 2016 |
| Creators | Hsiao, Chih-Po, 蕭智博 |
| Contributors | Chen, Shih-Tzung, 陳世宗 |
| Source Sets | National Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations in Taiwan |
| Language | zh-TW |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | 學位論文 ; thesis |
| Format | 133 |
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