碩士 / 國立勤益科技大學 / 工業工程與管理系 / 106 / These years, with the rapid economic development, the huge amount of energy consumption causes environmental pollution and results in greenhouse effect and resource depletion. Human need to search for more energy and renewable energy is the energy industry that each government promotes, including wind energy, solar energy, geothermal energy, biomass energy, etc. Taiwan is abundant in wind energy, and the conditions of wind power and wind field are one of the best in the world. Therefore, wind energy is the important policy for developing renewable energy in our country.
The wind farms in coastal areas of western Taiwan have almost been developed. Thus, government promotes to develop offshore wind farms. The feasibility of developing offshore wind farms need to be evaluated in many ways and the most important thing is to obtain the wind power from turbines. Wind power comes from wind speed, but we lack the wind speed information of offshore wind farms. Therefore, we can only simulate the wind speed by related data. This research uses the resource collected from observation station of Central Weather Bureau, and applies Copula models to simulate wind speed. After using Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) to select proper Copula models, simulating the wind speed of the observation station near offshore wind farms, translating it to the wind speed of the height of turbines, calculating the electricity production of the height of turbines and finally evaluate the revenues of offshore wind farms according to its electricity production.
According to the literature review, not all data are applicable to Copula Models. When sea temperature and wind speed are considered, Gumbel and Clayton are not suitable for them. On view of AIC and BIC, Frank model is more suitable for wind speed and sea temperature. After confirming Copula models, we evaluate the electricity production according to the simulated wind speed, and estimate that the revenues of wind farms will reach break-even point at the eighth year, which means an operating profit margin of 63% after 20 years.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:TW/106NCIT5041011 |
| Date | January 2018 |
| Creators | Jian-Yu Chen, 陳建宇 |
| Contributors | Hsu-Hao Yang, 楊旭豪 |
| Source Sets | National Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations in Taiwan |
| Language | zh-TW |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | 學位論文 ; thesis |
| Format | 38 |
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