碩士 / 國立成功大學 / 交通管理科學系碩士在職專班 / 106 / The aim of the research presented in this paper is to analyse influencing factors of the Baltic Dry Index. Based on past literature research, the global real GDP growth rate, global steel index, global agribusiness index, and Brent crude are used to explore the causal relationship. The data was taken from Q1 in 2009 to Q1 in 2018. The research used the marginal co-integration through autoregressive distributed lag-ARDL and the error correction model (ECM), which analyzed the relationship of long-term and short-term between the BDI index and each variable. Finally Granger causality is used to explore the causal relationship between variables. The conclusion of this research is to establish there are a long-term relationship between the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) and global real economic growth rate (GDP), global steel index (CRU), global agricultural gold index (DAX), Brent crude. The global real GDP growth rate from the first to the fourth period has a significant positive relationship with the Baltic Dry Index, confirming that the global real economic growth rate is the Baltic Dry Index impact factor.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:TW/106NCKU5119026 |
| Date | January 2018 |
| Creators | Jyuan-HuaChang, 張娟華 |
| Contributors | Ching-chih Chang, 張瀞之 |
| Source Sets | National Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations in Taiwan |
| Language | zh-TW |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | 學位論文 ; thesis |
| Format | 47 |
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