Development and Validtion of a Predictive Model for the Growth of Pathogenic Vibrio parahaemolyticus in Taiwan: Illustrated by Cooked Shrimp / 台灣致病性腸炎弧菌之預測生長模型建立與驗證: 以熟蝦為例

碩士 / 國立臺灣海洋大學 / 食品科學系 / 106 / Vibrio parahaemolyticus was reported as the major pathogen leading to foodborne outbreaks in Taiwan. Microbial predictive model could be rapidly to describe the growth behavior of V. parahaemolyticus in different temperature level. However, present study of development a specific predictive model in conection with V. parahaemolyticus strains in Taiwan is still few. Thus, this study aim to develop and validate the predictive growth model of pathogenic strains of V. parahaemolyticus on cooked shrimp at different temperature level to achieve the user - friendly purpose. Firstly, in this study the modified Gompertz equation was used as a primary model, while the Ratkowsky equation and non - linear Arrhenius model were performed as the secondary model, and then the tertiary model was developed based on the primary and secondary model. Finally, validation of developed model was determined by the comparison of correlation coefficient (R2), bias factor (B f) and accuracy factor (A f). Results showed that the R2 for both of the specific growth rates (μ max) and lag time (LT) were higher than 0.98 in secondary model. In addition, the internal validation of the secondary model showed that R2 of observed and predicted of μ max and LT were both higher than 0.86, and in the addition temperatures test, μ max and LT were higher than 0.94and 0.84, respectively. The B f value for both test were obtained in range of good model, which means the model produced a good fit. A similar high correlation among temperature, specific growth rate and lag time were also observed in tertiary model with R2 value for both average μ max and LT of higher than 0.99. Then, the internal validation of the five V. parahaemolyticus strains showed that R2 of observed and predicted of the average μ max and LT were higher than 0.97 and0.98, respectively, and in the addition temperatures test, the average μ max and LT were higher than 0.99 and0.93, respectively. The B f value for both test were obtained in range of good model which means the model produced a good fit. Besides, the A f and B f of the dynamic temperatures test for V. parahaemolyticus 09 - 998 were 1.15 and 1.14 respectively, with the B f situated in use with caution range, which indicated that the model could be acceptable but slightly overestimation. Finally, this study also resulted the growth speed of pathogenic strains of V. parahaemolyticus in Taiwan was faster to be compared with other literatures. Overall, the present study reports the development and validation of a unified optimization algorithm for the tertiary model of pathogenic V. parahaemolyticus in Taiwan on cooked shrimp, which means the model could easy to use. These findings could be used for a better prediction on the growth of V. parahaemolyticus in shrimp and might improve the accuracy dealing with microbial risk assessment in Taiwan.

Identiferoai:union.ndltd.org:TW/106NTOU5253058
Date January 2018
CreatorsHu, Jia-Yu, 胡家瑜
ContributorsHsiao, Hsin-I, 蕭心怡
Source SetsNational Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations in Taiwan
Languagezh-TW
Detected LanguageEnglish
Type學位論文 ; thesis
Format88

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