An expert elicitation is a method of eliciting subjective probability distributions over key parameters from experts. Traditionally an expert elicitation has taken the form of a face-to-face interview; however, interest in using online methods has been growing. This thesis compares two elicitation modes and examines the effectiveness of an interactive online survey compared to a face-to-face interview. Differences in central values, overconfidence, accuracy and satisficing were considered. The results of our analysis indicated that, in instances where the online and face-to-face elicitations were directly comparable, the differences between the modes was not significant. Consequently, a carefully designed online elicitation may be used successfully to obtain accurate forecasts.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:UMASS/oai:scholarworks.umass.edu:masters_theses_2-1654 |
| Date | 09 July 2018 |
| Creators | Cruickshank, Claire |
| Publisher | ScholarWorks@UMass Amherst |
| Source Sets | University of Massachusetts, Amherst |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Format | application/pdf |
| Source | Masters Theses |
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