This paper investigates the relationship between oil price shocks on two measures of oil importers and exporter´s trade balances, namely the Merchandise Trade balance and Non-oil trade balance. The paper also aims to analyse whether oil price fluctuation tend to explain a smaller or larger part of the variability on the Trade and Non-oil trade balance. The short-run dynamics running from the oil price to overall and non-oil trade balance are investigated using a Impulse Response function, Granger causality test and Forecast error variance decomposition test(FEVD) with quarterly data spanning between Q1 1995 to Q4 2018. Two Nordic countries distinguishable in their terms of oil characteristic are regarded in this analysis. Sweden as an oil importer and Norway as oil exporter. Furthermore, a subperiod estimation are performed by splitting the time series into two subperiod, and thereby be able to perform a FEVD test to see whether the share of oil regarding its influence on the trade balance are decreasing over time.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:UPSALLA1/oai:DiVA.org:umu-161058 |
| Date | January 2019 |
| Creators | Boman, Viktor |
| Publisher | Umeå universitet, Nationalekonomi |
| Source Sets | DiVA Archive at Upsalla University |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Student thesis, info:eu-repo/semantics/bachelorThesis, text |
| Format | application/pdf |
| Rights | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
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