We consider the problem of predicting the direction of daily volatility changes in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). This is accomplished by quantizing a series of historic volatility changes into a symbolic stream over 2 or 4 symbols. We compare predictive performance of the classical fixed-order Markov models with that of a novel approach to variable memory length prediction (called prediction fractal machine, or PFM) which is able to select very specific deep prediction contexts (whenever there is a sufficient support for such contexts in the training data). We learn that daily volatility changes of the DJIA only exhibit rather shallow finite memory structure. On the other hand, a careful selection of quantization cut values can strongly enhance predictive power of symbolic schemes. Results on 12 non-overlapping epochs of the DJIA strongly suggest that PFMs can outperform both traditional Markov models and (continuous-valued) GARCH models in the task of predicting volatility one time-step ahead. (author's abstract) / Series: Working Papers SFB "Adaptive Information Systems and Modelling in Economics and Management Science"
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:VIENNA/oai:epub.wu-wien.ac.at:epub-wu-01_225 |
| Date | January 1998 |
| Creators | Tino, Peter, Schittenkopf, Christian, Dorffner, Georg, Dockner, Engelbert J. |
| Publisher | SFB Adaptive Information Systems and Modelling in Economics and Management Science, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business |
| Source Sets | Wirtschaftsuniversität Wien |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Working Paper, NonPeerReviewed |
| Format | application/pdf |
| Relation | http://epub.wu.ac.at/1142/ |
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