In this thesis, we propose an econometric estimator for a repeat-spell duration model involving fixed effects. Using data on nationally negotiated pay settlements in Britain between 1950 to 73, this estimator is applied to a model that simultaneously determines the timing as well as the magnitude of wage changes in a continuously varying economic environment. Our model is very robust in terms of the distributional assumptions and is particularly useful in analysing the effect on the exit rate of events occurring after the commencement of a spell, such as incomes policies. Consequently, this approach makes it possible to distinguish between two separate effects of such policies on the wage changes: delay and moderation. We further analyse the impact of these policies by introducing a self contained policy sub-model in the system of renegotiation probability and realized wage change nexus, in order to find out the existence of consistent effect exerted by different degrees of allowance and enforcement. We find a significant impact of incomes policy, enforced and non-enforced, on the size as well as the timing of negotiations, which is also confirmed by the results of dynamic simulation.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:bl.uk/oai:ethos.bl.uk:645348 |
| Date | January 1992 |
| Creators | Kurosawa, Masako |
| Publisher | London School of Economics and Political Science (University of London) |
| Source Sets | Ethos UK |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Electronic Thesis or Dissertation |
| Source | http://etheses.lse.ac.uk/1344/ |
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