Recent literature on high school graduation and drop out have shifted the focus
from identifying causes of drop out to identifying students who are at risk of dropping
out. The Early Warning Systems (EWS) used to identify students seek to use existing
data to predict which students have a greater risk of dropping out of school so that
schools can intervene early enough to reengage students. Despite widespread attention to
individual indicators, there is no defined system of indicators proven to be generalizable
across grade levels, specifically at the elementary grade levels. Drawing on the tenets of
Bronfenbrenner’s (1979) Ecological Systems Theory, the purpose of this quantitative
research study was to determine to what extent the State of Florida’s EWS model can
predict on-time cohort graduation in grades 3-8.
Using a retrospective longitudinal sample, this study first established that
Allensworth and Easton’s (2005) grade 9 on-track indicator was predictive of dropout,
finding that 92.2% of students who were on-track in grade 9 graduated on time. Using
this grade 9 indicator as a proxy for graduation, this study then examined the effectiveness of the Florida EWS at predicting on-track status. Through this a priori link
to graduation, this study was able to shed light on predictive indicators in the elementary
and middle school years without the temporal distance between the predictor grade levels
and graduation typically associated with longitudinal studies of this nature. The findings
that the Florida EWS successfully predicted 71.6% of future on- and off-track status
confirms its use as a predictive indicator of students at risk of not graduating. The
academic, behavioral, and engagement indicators found in both Allensworth & Easton’s
(2005) grade 9 on-track indicator and the Florida EWS were found to successfully
capture the molar activities of students within the school ecological system and were
successful at providing an indication of a student’s development in terms of being on
track to graduate on time from high school. / Includes bibliography. / Dissertation (Ph.D.)--Florida Atlantic University, 2018. / FAU Electronic Theses and Dissertations Collection
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:fau.edu/oai:fau.digital.flvc.org:fau_40831 |
| Contributors | McMahon, Brian M. (author), Sembiante, Sabrina (Thesis advisor), Florida Atlantic University (Degree grantor), College of Education, Department of Curriculum, Culture, and Educational Inquiry |
| Publisher | Florida Atlantic University |
| Source Sets | Florida Atlantic University |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Electronic Thesis or Dissertation, Text |
| Format | 155 p., application/pdf |
| Rights | Copyright © is held by the author, with permission granted to Florida Atlantic University to digitize, archive and distribute this item for non-profit research and educational purposes. Any reuse of this item in excess of fair use or other copyright exemptions requires permission of the copyright holder., http://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/ |
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