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Stochastic Models and Inferences for Commodity Futures Pricing

The stochastic modeling of financial assets is essential to the valuation of financial products and investment decisions. These models are governed by certain parameters that are estimated through a process known as calibration. Current procedures typically perform a grid-search optimization of a given objective function over a specified parameter space. These methods can be computationally intensive and require restrictions on the parameter space to achieve timely convergence. In this thesis, we propose an alternative Kalman Smoother Expectation Maximization procedure (KSEM) that can jointly estimate all the parameters and produces better model t that compared to alternative estimation procedures. Further, we consider the additional complexity of the modeling of jumps or spikes that may occur in a time series. For this calibration we develop a Particle Smoother Expectation Maximization procedure (PSEM) for the optimization of nonlinear systems. This is an entirely new estimation approach, and we provide several examples of it's application. / A Dissertation submitted to the Department of Statistics in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy. / Fall Semester, 2009. / July 17, 2009. / Particle Smoothing, EM Algorithm, Particle Filter Kalman Filter, Kalman Smoothing, Parameter Learning, Gaussian Mixture / Includes bibliographical references. / Anuj Srivastava, Professor Co-Directing Dissertation; James Doran, Professor Co-Directing Dissertation; Patrick Mason, Outside Committee Member; Xufeng Niu, Committee Member; Fred Huffer, Committee Member; Wei Wu, Committee Member.

Identiferoai:union.ndltd.org:fsu.edu/oai:fsu.digital.flvc.org:fsu_180965
ContributorsNcube, Moeti M., 1985- (authoraut), Srivastava, Anuj (professor co-directing dissertation), Doran, James (professor co-directing dissertation), Mason, Patrick (outside committee member), Niu, Xufeng (committee member), Huffer, Fred (committee member), Wu, Wei (committee member), Department of Statistics (degree granting department), Florida State University (degree granting institution)
PublisherFlorida State University, Florida State University
Source SetsFlorida State University
LanguageEnglish, English
Detected LanguageEnglish
TypeText, text
Format1 online resource, computer, application/pdf
RightsThis Item is protected by copyright and/or related rights. You are free to use this Item in any way that is permitted by the copyright and related rights legislation that applies to your use. For other uses you need to obtain permission from the rights-holder(s). The copyright in theses and dissertations completed at Florida State University is held by the students who author them.

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