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ARRESTS AND CRIME: SOME TIME SERIES EVIDENCE

A causal analysis of the relationship between arrest certainty and property crime is presented. The analysis tests for "system's capacity" effects and "deterrence" effects. The research employs a Multivariate ARIMA model of the type advocated by Box and Jenkins. The analysis indicates that increasing arrest certainty reduces index property crime, but increasing index property crime does not reduce arrest certainty. The research supports the thesis that increasing sanction certainty decreases crime, however the analysis does not unequivocally support the deterrence hypothesis. The lack of unequivocal support for the deterrence hypothesis is the result of the inability to control exogenous factors, and the lack of construct validity. The operationalization of the probability of arrest construct necessarily encompasses causal processes which are distinct from deterrence, but which also act to inhibit criminal behavior. Therefore the reduction in property crime associated with increased arrest certainty can not be attributed to a deterrence causal process. / Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 43-06, Section: A, page: 2069. / Thesis (Ph.D.)--The Florida State University, 1982.

Identiferoai:union.ndltd.org:fsu.edu/oai:fsu.digital.flvc.org:fsu_74846
ContributorsNORTON, WILLIAM M., Florida State University
Source SetsFlorida State University
Detected LanguageEnglish
TypeText
Format109 p.
RightsOn campus use only.
RelationDissertation Abstracts International

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