Economic forecasts are needed in order to gain knowledge about future trends and events that are crucial for current decision making regarding the economy. There are no known models for forecasting the Jordanian economy. The purpose of this thesis is to design a forecasting model for the Jordanian economy; to forecast gross national product (GNP), gross domestic product (GDP), consumer price index (CPI), consumption, investment, export, import, money demand, exchange rate, change in inventory, employment level, and government expenditure. / Two methods of forecasting are used. One is an econometric model; while the other is the Box-Jenkins method. After each method was independently used, a composite forecast was built that relied equally upon each of the independent models. The composite forecast performed better than either the Box-Jenkins model or the econometric model in the major variables of GNP, GDP, CPI, and employment. The average ex-post forecasts were comparable to the best forecasts of the other two models for private consumption, export, import, exchange rate, and change in inventory. Finally, the composite forecast is preferred to other methods of forecasting because the Box-Jenkins model over-forecasts most of the variables while the econometric model under-forecasts most of the variables. / Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 50-11, Section: A, page: 3700. / Major Professor: Joan Haworth. / Thesis (Ph.D.)--The Florida State University, 1989.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:fsu.edu/oai:fsu.digital.flvc.org:fsu_78094 |
| Contributors | El-Mefleh, Muhannad Ali., Florida State University |
| Source Sets | Florida State University |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Text |
| Format | 258 p. |
| Rights | On campus use only. |
| Relation | Dissertation Abstracts International |
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