Gross domestic product (GDP) is one of the most important economic performance indicators for any country that is closely watched by governments, businesses and financial communities. GDP often influences economic decisions and policy-making. These decisions are however often based on preliminary initial announcements by statistical agencies. The preliminary estimates are then revised as more comprehensive information becomes available. Therefore, it is important to ensure that the initial GDP announcements are unbiased, efficient and can be relied on. This study focuses on seasonally adjusted and annualised (qq) growth rates at constant prices for the following national accounts aggregates: GDP, gross domestic expenditure (GDE), final consumption expenditure by households and general government, gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), Exports and imports of goods and services, gross national income (GNI) and disposable income of households. The research methodology used is based on descriptive statistics and Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression estimations. The results of the study indicate that little confidence should be attributed to interpretations of the initially announced estimates for GDP, GDE, final consumption expenditure by households, GNI and disposable income by households. The study found evidence that suggests that the initial announcements are biased and inefficient. This implies that the initial announcements contain measurement errors that could be eliminated in order to become a better forecast of the final or true value. This further suggests a lack of expected reliability of existing and future initial announcements of the estimates. For short-term analysis the users of GDP data are encouraged to focus on different measures. It is also recommended that the statistical agents producing South Africa’s national accounts aggregates improve their statistical compilation processes. The agencies are also encouraged to conduct periodic revisions studies and make these available to the users.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:netd.ac.za/oai:union.ndltd.org:nmmu/vital:20448 |
| Date | January 2016 |
| Creators | Fotoyi, Asanda |
| Publisher | Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University, Faculty of Business and Economic Sciences |
| Source Sets | South African National ETD Portal |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Thesis, Masters, MCom |
| Format | viii, 111 leaves, pdf |
| Rights | Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University |
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