The effect of the inclusion of sexual behaviour, particularly three sexual orientation classes, on the transmission dynamics of HPV and cervical cancer incidence was investigated. A comprehensive literature review of mathematical models of HPV transmission and the natural history of cervical cancer was concluded. A mathematical model using ordinary differential equations was developed, which incorporated the three sexual orientation classes, and a sexual mixing algorithm for modelling the transmission dynamics. Reproduction numbers, determined through a simplified version of the developed model, indicated that the bisexual population could form a bridge between the heterosexual and homosexual population. The level of interaction is determined by the selection preferences of a bisexual individual to form a partnership with an individual of the same or opposite sex. The model was simulated, with parameters based on a South African population and HPV type 16/18, to investigate the effects of HIV status, sexual orientation and various vaccination strategies on HPV transmission and cervical cancer incidence. The results indicated that HIV status is a significant factor when determining cervical cancer incidence. The results regarding vaccination strategies agreed with results from the literature review with a two sex before sexual debut and catch up program the most effective, noting that with increased vaccination coverage of females the marginal impact on cervical cancer incidence of this approach diminished.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:netd.ac.za/oai:union.ndltd.org:nmmu/vital:20494 |
| Date | January 2013 |
| Creators | Holtzhausen, Tresia Louisa |
| Publisher | Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University, Faculty of Science |
| Source Sets | South African National ETD Portal |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Thesis, Masters, MSc |
| Format | 98 leaves, pdf |
| Rights | Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University |
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